ICC Women's World Cup 2025: How India can qualify for the semifinals – Explained

India’s journey in the ICC Women’s ODI World Cup 2025 has been a rollercoaster of highs and lows. After two wins and three narrow defeats in the group stage so far, the women in blue face a crucial phase of the tournament.

With only two matches remaining, the team still has a realistic chance to make the semi-finals despite recent setbacks.

The upcoming clashes against New Zealand and Bangladesh are pivotal. While India has the advantage of playing at home, the pressure is high as these games will largely determine who secures the fourth and final semi-final spot.

Australia, England, and South Africa have already secured their spot in the knockouts.

India’s current standing and remaining fixtures

India’s campaign in the ICC Women’s ODI World Cup 2025 has reached a critical stage after a narrow four-run defeat to England in Indore. This marks their third loss in five matches, leaving the women in blue with only two league games remaining to secure a semifinal spot.

The current points table shows:

Australia – 9 points, NRR +1.818 (Qualified)

England – 9 points, NRR +1.490 (Qualified)

South Africa – 8 points, NRR -0.440 (Qualified)

India – 4 points, NRR +0.526

New Zealand – 4 points, NRR -0.245

Bangladesh – 2 points, NRR -0.676

With Australia, England, and South Africa already securing the first three semifinal berths, the fourth spot is now a contest primarily between India and New Zealand.

Sri Lanka and Pakistan remain a dark horse but need multiple favorable results to stay in contention.

India’s remaining matches are:

India vs New Zealand – October 23, Navi Mumbai

India vs Bangladesh – October 26, Navi Mumbai

Understanding the tie-break rules

In case teams end up with equal points, the ICC tie-breaking criteria are:

Number of wins – The team with more victories ranks higher.

Net run rate (NRR) – If wins are equal, NRR is used.

Head-to-head record – If NRR is identical, the team with a better head-to-head result prevails.

Seeding – If all else fails, initial tournament seeding is considered.

This means even if India and New Zealand finish with the same points, India can qualify by having more wins.

India’s Semifinal Qualification Scenarios

The match against New Zealand is crucial, but India still has multiple ways to reach the semifinals depending on results:

1. Direct qualification path:

Requirement: Win both remaining matches

Outcome: 8 points

Analysis: This is the simplest and safest route. Beating New Zealand and Bangladesh guarantees the fourth semifinal spot regardless of other results.

2. Primary scenario – win vs New Zealand, lose vs Bangladesh:

Requirement: Win vs New Zealand, lose vs Bangladesh

Outcome: 6 points

Analysis: A win over New Zealand would put India on three wins, while New Zealand could reach a maximum of two victories even if they beat England in their final match, effectively eliminating them from contention.

3. Secondary Scenario – lose vs New Zealand, win vs Bangladesh:

Requirement: Lose to New Zealand, beat Bangladesh

Outcome: 6 points

Analysis: Even if India lose to New Zealand, a win against Bangladesh would give them three wins and six points.

In this scenario, India would qualify if England defeats New Zealand in their final game, as the number of wins favors India over New Zealand regardless of Net Run Rate.

However, if New Zealand beat both India and England and India beat Bangladesh, the NRR will come into play.

4. Rain-affected path:

Requirement: No result vs New Zealand, win vs Bangladesh

Outcome: 7 points

Analysis: A washout against New Zealand would give both teams 5 points. India’s higher NRR ensures they stay ahead, so a win against Bangladesh would virtually guarantee semifinal qualification.

5. Scenario for third place:

If India wins both remaining matches (reaching 8 points) and South Africa loses both theirs, India could finish third. Two big victories would also further improve India’s NRR advantage over South Africa.

Strategy for Harmanpreet Kaur’s team

Treat New Zealand match as a final: The October 23 clash is decisive. A win ensures India controls its destiny, moving to six points with an advantage over New Zealand.

Strengthen bowling and fielding: Recent defeats highlighted lapses in extras and fielding. Disciplined bowling in the powerplay and death overs, coupled with sharper fielding, is essential.

Maximize NRR: Dominant wins, especially against Bangladesh, will provide insurance in case of tied points.

Finish strong: Assuming victory over New Zealand, the Bangladesh match will determine qualification and momentum heading into the semifinals.

Looking ahead to the semifinals

If India successfully navigates these final hurdles, they are likely to face either Australia or England in the semifinals (October 29–30).

Playing on home grounds with strong crowd support, India still has the talent, experience, and opportunity to stage a remarkable turnaround and keep their World Cup hopes alive.